The arrival of coronavirus vaccines promises a return to a more normal life but at the same time, has created a global market worth tens of billions of dollars in annual sales for some pharmaceutical companies.
According to an extensive Guardian article, among the biggest winners will be Moderna and Pfizer - two very different US pharmaceutical companies that both charge more than 30 dollars per person for protection against coronavirus from their two-dose vaccines.
And while Moderna was founded before 11 years, he had never made a profit and was just busy 830 employees before the pandemic, Pfizer traces its roots to 1849, had a net profit 9,6 billions of dollars last year and employs almost 80.000 employees.
However, and other pharmaceutical companies, such as the British-Swedish AstraZeneca and the American Johnson & Johnson, have pledged to provide their vaccines on a non-profit basis until the pandemic is over.
Whether the market will remain profitable in the future depends on whether the vaccines will need to be given only once - as for measles - or whether regular vaccinations will be required., as for the flu. But in the near future, the financial returns for these companies are huge. Let's see who will make the biggest profits - and which shareholders have already made a fortune.
Pfizer / BioNTech - mRNA vaccine
The Pfizer Comirnaty vaccine, developed in collaboration with BioNTech Germany, based on messenger RNA. When injected into the body, the mRNA vaccine passes to the cells and "teaches" them to make antigens. These antigens are recognized by both the immune system and the immune system, then, prepares to give "battle" with the coronavirus.
It was the first to be approved and must be stored at extremely low temperatures (-70C). Governments have ordered about 780 millions of doses of this vaccine, including the US (200 millions of doses against 3,9 billions of dollars) and the European Union (300 millions of doses) while doses 40 millions will go to low-income countries through the Covax program. This vaccine costs money 39 dollars for two installments in the US and about 30 dollars in the EU.
Expected sales the 2021: 15 billion. dollars – 30 billion. dollars
Η Pfizer, which divides costs and profit margins equally with BioNTech, expects sales 15 billions of dollars 2021 based on current offers. The final amount could be doubled, as Pfizer says it can potentially build 2 billions in installments this year. Barclays analyst Carter Gould forecasts sales 21,5 billions of dollars 2021, 8,6 billions of dollars next year and 1,95 billions of dollars 2023, provided the vaccine is given as a single dose.
The change in the share price in recent months
Pfizer: + 1,8%
BioNTech: + 156%
The two founders of BioNTech, Ugur Sahin and Ozlem Tureci - both doctors - became multi-billionaires this year, when the dynamics of the vaccine and the agreement with Pfizer pushed up the stock.
Moderna - MRNA vaccine
As highlighted in the Guardian article, the vaccine produced by the American Biotechnology Company, based in Massachusetts, should be stored at freezer temperature (-20C). The United Kingdom has ordered installments 17 millions, the EU bought 310 millions with choice for others 150 millions of 2022, while the US government ordered 300 millions of doses. Japan bought 50 millions of doses. Moderna charges 30 dollars for the required two installments in the US and 36 dollars in the EU.
Expected sales the 2021: 18 billion. Dollars - 20 billion. Dollars
Moderna said it expects sales 18,4 billions of dollars 2021. Barclays analyst Jenna Wang, predicts sales 19,6 billions of dollars, 12,2 billions of dollars 2022 and 11,4 billions of dollars 2023, assuming repeated vaccinations.
Change in stock price the latter 12 months: +327%
A group of investors who supported the company when it was founded 2010 will have significant returns. CEO Stéphane Bancel,, a 48-year-old Frenchman, owns the 9% of shares, with his fortune now amounting to about 5 billions of dollars.
Johnson & Johnson: Adenovirus
The Johnson vaccine & Johnson, the world's first single-dose coronavirus vaccine, developed by the Janssen department in Belgium. Uses adenovirus - 26, a rare variant of the cold virus. Approved in the US in late February and can be stored at normal refrigerator temperatures for at least three months. Large orders include the US, the UK (30 millions of doses plus the option for 22 millions), the EU (to 400 millions of doses) and the Covax nations (500 millions of doses by 2022).
Expected sales the 2021: to 10 billions of dollars
The company aims to deliver at least 1 billion installments this year, something that will bring her 10 billions of dollars. The US government has ordered 100 millions of doses, with the option to buy 200 millions more, and pays 10 $ a dose.
Change of share price the last ones 12 months: + 7,7%
AstraZeneca: Adenovirus vector vaccine
The vaccine developed by the University of Oxford uses a modified cold chimpanzee virus and can be stored at room temperature. Viral vector vaccines use a harmless virus to deliver a piece of genetic code to cells. Large orders come from the UK (100 millions), the EU (to 400 millions), the USA (300 millions) and Japan (120 millions).
Expected sales the 2021: 2 billions of dollars - 3 billions of dollars
SVB Leerink analysts forecast sales 1,9 billion. Dollars this year and 3 billion. dollars it 2022. His profit 2021 could be much higher if AstraZeneca achieves its ambitious goal of 3 billions of doses. The company has pledged to supply the vaccine on a non-profit basis during the pandemic and charges from 4,3 dollars to 10 dollars for both installments.
Change of share price the last ones 12 months: -8,6%
Gamaleya Institute / Russian Direct Investment Fund: Adenovirus vaccine
Although not yet approved by the EU regulator, Hungary and Slovakia bought the Russian Sputnik V vaccine. In total, more than 50 Countries, including Iran, Algeria and Mexico, they have ordered it. AstraZeneca is testing a combination of two vaccines with Sputnik.
Expected sales the 2021: vague but probably billions
Manufacturers are struggling to mass-produce Sputnik vaccines in Russia, but RDIF, a state wealth fund, told the Financial Times last month that he had signed contracts with 15 manufacturers in 10 countries for production 1,4 billion doses. The manufacturers have stated that they will charge 20 dollars or less for the required two installments internationally, but they provide it for free in Russia.
Novavax: Recombinant protein vaccine
The Novavax vaccine uses a small portion of a laboratory version of the Sars-CoV-2 pin protein. The American company hopes for approval in the United Kingdom, the US and other countries in the first half. The company is researching vaccines for more than 30 years and to date no vaccine has ever been approved. It has agreed to provide up to 300 millions of doses, including the United Kingdom (60 millions of doses), of the EU, of Canada and Australia. He hopes to produce 150 millions of doses a month and is expected to be cheaper than competitors. According to the Financial Times, the company agreed to charge 3 $ in Africa. The vaccine will also be available at Stockton-on-Tees, in the north east of England, and can be stored at refrigerator temperature.
Expected sales the 2021: "Several billion dollars"
Based on these agreements, adds the Guardian article, Novavax said this week that it sees "multibillion-dollar revenue potential in the coming years. 12 months". This is going to increase, as Novavax expects to be able to manufacture 2 billions of doses a year to the middle 2021, thanks to the collaboration with the Serum Institute of India.
Change of share price the last ones 12 months:+ 1,128%
The biggest financial gains will be made to fund managers such as Vanguard and BlackRock, who are the largest shareholders.
CureVac: MRNA vaccine
Curevac expects to publish the results of the latest phase of its vaccine in April and hopes to receive approval from the EU by June. The EU has pre-ordered 225 millions of installments with the option to buy others 180 millions. Unlike other mRNA vaccines, CureVac vaccine can be stored at refrigerator temperature. Together with GSK, which almost owns the 10% of the German company, seeks to develop next-generation vaccines for multiple emerging variants of Covid-19 into one vaccine.
Expected sales the 2021: vague – prices have not yet been revealed, but are priced at a profit
The biotechnology company aims to produce up to 300 million doses this year and 600 millions to 1 billions in doses 2022. CureVac says its vaccine requires less active ingredient than its competitors, but insists it cannot price it because investors expect to make a profit.
Change in share price: + 45,5%
The largest shareholder is the German billionaire Dietmar Hopp, the co-founder of the software company SAP. It holds over 80% of CureVac, is now worth more than 12 billions of dollars.