The coronavirus vaccine is expected to drastically reduce new cases, hospital admissions and deaths, as long as enough people are vaccinated. Exactly how many are difficult to estimate and will probably vary from country to country.
However, according to estimates by scientists in the US, who developed a relevant model, even one 20% to 40% vaccinated population will make a difference, directly protecting those who are vaccinated and indirectly those who do not.
Investigators, led by Assistant Professor Megan Fitzpatrick of the University of Maryland School of Medicine, who did the medical pre-post on medRxiv (has not yet been a regular publication in a scientific journal), estimate that in vaccinated the 40% of the population, both hospital admissions and in particular intensive care units will be reduced by at least 85%, while the deaths against 88%, in relation to the case where no vaccinations had been given.
Investigators, according to the Athenian-Macedonian News Agency, pointed out that this does not mean that after vaccination 40% of the population, the precautions will go for a walk.
They estimate that given how easily the coronavirus spreads, probably about three quarters of the population (75%) -a fairly large percentage- will need to be vaccinated, before the competent authorities can safely lift the restrictions completely.
Therefore, according to Dr. Fitzpatrick, the point is to convince as many people as possible to remove any of their reservations and phobias and get vaccinated. As the great effectiveness of Pfizer / BioNTech and Moderna vaccines said (over 94% for both) can really have a huge positive impact.
For a long time still the measures
The model is based on the fact that the vaccination in two doses will start with the health personnel, those with underlying diseases and those above 65 years, will be followed by those below 65 years and will not be vaccinated in those below 18 years (There are not yet enough data for children and adolescents from the tests). It is also estimated that when vaccinations begin, almost the 10% of the population will have acquired natural immunity in mockery due to previous exposure to it.
Based on these conditions, it is estimated that his vaccination 40% of the US population will decrease by 83% to 90% the cases in the above 65 years, but also against 50% below 20 years, although no vaccinations will be given to minors. In other words, the elderly will be protected directly and the young indirectly, as vaccine immunity is increased in the wider community.
But even a percentage 20% of the population vaccinated, the model predicts a significant reduction in hospitalizations by 60%, in imports into ICU against 62% and deaths against 64%. That is, according to researchers, as vaccinations proceed, it will probably not be long before the positive impact on hospitals is seen. Whether this estimate is over-optimistic, it remains to be seen in practice.
The researchers pointed out, according to Live Science, that vaccines should be combined with continued precautions, such as using a mask and keeping your distance from others, as it will be premature for a climate of carelessness to prevail, before the majority of the population is vaccinated. They estimate that social distancing and a mask will be needed for several months after the start of vaccinations, while considering the overburden areas, where a lot of people gather en masse and with close contact, should be opened cautiously and since the vaccination rates of the population are relatively high.